3 UX Design Predictions for 2018

2017 was eventful for the UI/UX design and tech communities, and for the world at large. From exciting advances like Amazon Key and the iPhone X, to facepalms like Facebook's ad targeting failures and Uber's ongoing saga of mistakes, there's one big lesson we can all take away: with great design power comes great responsibility.

Here's a look at how our 2017 UX design predictions held up, followed by three trends I expect to define 2018.

How Did the 2017 UX Design Predictions Do?

Prediction 3: Brands will be forced to embrace technology or die. Score: B

This one was accurate in spirit. Almost every company is now adding a software layer to their business in some way, whether to improve internal operations or the external customer experience. Businesses are waking up to the fact that people in most market categories expect to manage their products and services digitally.

Look at food delivery. Services like Grubhub, Uber Eats, and DoorDash have turned the online delivery market into a $20 billion industry, with experts projecting it will hit $55 billion by 2022. Restaurants that once relied on word of mouth and traditional advertising now have a new venue for reaching customers: outsourced delivery services that let them focus on the food without the overhead.

But the rise of these software solutions comes with its own growing pains. Walk into any restaurant that uses a food delivery app and look for the wall of tablets by the register. Each service runs on its own system, requiring separate devices to process orders. Functional? Yes. The best solution? Hardly.

I still firmly believe brands will be forced to embrace technology or die. But I'm knocking this down to a "B" because it's going to take a lot longer than a year for the market to sort out the additional problems new technology creates.

Prediction 2: Usability research and testing will go from optional to required. Score: A

I couldn't go to a client meeting or conference last year without hearing about research and testing, and I couldn't be happier about it. These have been two key pieces of our design process at Drawbackwards for a while now. (We even adjusted our design thinking process to highlight and share why research matters so much.) We used to spend a lot of time convincing clients to invest in research and testing. This year, companies started seeking it out on their own.

Businesses are also realizing that research doesn't have to mean expensive, months-long studies. Even reading customer reviews (like the wildly successful Instant Pot team does), running simple usability tests, and doing empathy exercises can dramatically increase the likelihood of success, and help prevent epic failures.

Which leads us to the top prediction from last year...

Prediction 1: There will be a backlash against hyper-customized experiences that create echo chambers. Score: A+

I originally wrote this prediction in the aftermath of the 2016 Presidential election. Since then, hyper-customization has continued to impact our lives on an individual and global scale, often in deeply troubling ways.

Silicon Valley, where many of our most-used tech products are made, has become a hotbed for what angel investor and author Tim Ferriss describes as "closed-mindedness masquerading as open-mindedness." He recently explained why he left Silicon Valley after 17 years:

"For the last few years at least, I've witnessed what appears to be the forming of an echo chamber that is even tighter, even more hermetically sealed than it usually is in Silicon Valley. Yes, we court diversity, and we want to hear every and any opinions that we can pull the best from different worlds. In practice, I find that things more resemble McCarthyism right now. And people instead of inviting and courting dissenting opinions lash out and attack people if they don't conform to... what Silicon Valley views as the established set of credos and beliefs for a hyperliberal."

Then there's Facebook. The company went from Silicon Valley's golden child to problem child as reports surfaced that their ad platform had been weaponized in genuinely dangerous ways, from foreign governments interfering in U.S. elections to anti-Semitic groups recruiting through the platform. Facebook has more than enough money for research and testing. Even a few basic empathy exercises would have revealed some of the scary holes in their platform that impacted lives, their business, and the entire world.

As technology's dark side becomes harder to ignore, people in every corner of the country are feeling the ripple effects and rediscovering the meaning of that famous quote: "Technology is neither good nor bad; nor is it neutral."

In the age of media overload and alternative facts, people are becoming more skeptical and more selective about where they get their information. Droves of users are leaving Facebook, including teens and young adults. Bright minds in tech, like Tim Ferriss, are breaking out of the Bay Area. Design teams around the world are seeking more external feedback to challenge their internal assumptions. And I suspect this trend will only accelerate in 2018.

It's tempting to only interact with stories and products that confirm what we already believe. But the past year has shown how important it is to maintain an open mind, stay healthily skeptical, and look outside our own bubble.

Overall, the 2017 predictions were on track. Now let's look ahead.

What Are the UX Design Predictions for 2018?

Prediction 3: More large, traditional companies will shift from project thinking to product thinking.

Many business people and old-guard C-suites approach everything as a project: a linear process where you complete a task, ship it, and move on. That methodology worked when everything was done in print and development cycles were measured in years, not minutes. But it prioritizes getting something done over doing something valuable well. It also conflicts with nearly every tenet of modern UI/UX design: valuing iteration, getting user feedback early and often, and understanding that scopes and requirements evolve as you learn.

Consumer needs and expectations change fast. More people are renting instead of buying, subscribing instead of making one-time purchases, and sharing instead of owning. These business models drive recurring revenue, but they also raise the stakes. Companies have to continuously innovate to keep customers subscribed.

As the Kano model illustrates, features and experiences that once delighted customers become basic expectations over time. If customers can renew or cancel every month, the companies they do business with need to go the extra mile, every time.

That's where product thinking, or design thinking, comes in. This practical yet creative framework trades fixed scopes, pure aesthetics, and vanity metrics for constant iteration, problem solving, and real results. Rather than treating their product or service as a project, today's leading companies treat it as a living, breathing thing that's never completely done or perfect. By using a systematic yet iterative process focused on solving problems and continuous improvement, they give their "child" what it needs to grow into a successful adult.

Prediction 2: More design departments will take a hybrid hiring approach that blends in-house talent and external partners.

As design becomes a greater priority for companies of all sizes, one of the most common challenges the C-suite and Product Managers face is whether to build an in-house UX team or hire a UX agency. Each option has real pros and cons, and choosing the wrong one can have a significant impact on success.

Investing in an internal design team provides:

• Full-time focus on your product or service
• Proximity to the stakeholders, subject matter experts, and decision makers needed to keep a product moving forward
• Cultural impact of being able to champion design throughout your organization

Partnering with a UI/UX design agency offers:

• More minds and hands on deck to work faster and provide continuity through significant internal changes (turnover, new leadership, etc.)
• A fresh pair of eyes to catch what your team might be missing
• Breadth and depth of experience
• Unbiased advice to help your team avoid critical, costly mistakes

Like most things in life, the best answer isn't always one or the other. It's a happy middle ground.

Instead of going all-in on an in-house team or outsourcing everything to an agency, I expect to see more companies using a hybrid approach. Together, both sides can overcome the cons each option presents while multiplying the pros:

• Combined expertise, allowing both sides to grow and apply their collective knowledge
• Even greater speed
• Complementary skill sets and personalities that work together to produce better outcomes

At Drawbackwards, we've seen this hybrid approach grow in popularity with our clients and across the industry. Hospitality leader Choice Hotels, for example, leveraged us as an advisor and coach to develop their design practice, improve their online and in-person booking experience, redesign their org chart, and assist with hiring and training a best-in-class internal UX team. By working together at both a strategic and tactical level, they've seen huge wins.

Up until now, the million-dollar question has been: "Should I build an in-house UX team or partner with a UX agency?" In 2018, I think the answer won't be one or the other. It'll be both.

(If you've been wrestling with this question, check out Drawbackwards' checklist of qualities to look for in a UX agency, or get in touch with us to learn more about how our team could help yours.)

Prediction 1: Contextual intelligence will rise as people crave a digital detox.

Technology has changed everything: our processes, businesses, relationships, and society as a whole. It's sparked some of the greatest advances in history, but it's also created new, unexpected challenges that affect all of us. Facebook's first president, Sean Parker, recently admitted even he didn't fully grasp what he was helping create:

"I don't know if I really understood the consequences of what I was saying, because of the unintended consequences of a network when it grows to a billion or 2 billion people and it literally changes your relationship with society, with each other. God only knows what it's doing to our children's brains."

Digital Responsibility confirms Parker's suspicions, reporting that technology has had significant consequences on our personal and professional lives, including:

• Psychological issues: distraction, expectations of instant gratification, narcissism, cognitive losses
• Social issues: deficits in social skills, a sense of isolation, depression
• Health issues: vision problems, hearing loss, neck strain, too much sitting

This is just the beginning. It's only going to get worse as usage increases and technology is integrated into everything we do. Even people who work in tech agree. Facebook's former VP of User Growth, Chamath Palihapitiya, put it bluntly: "You don't realize it, but you are being programmed. It was unintentional, but now you gotta decide how much you are willing to give up, how much of your intellectual independence."

As more people start seeing the dark side of technology and social media, I expect a growing number of them, including Millennials and power users, to crave a digital detox. They'll remove apps from their phones, silence notifications, and take regular breaks. As a result, tech companies will need to prioritize quality over quantity.

Contextual intelligence will become the name of the game: customizing each user's experience based on their context, including their location, environment, and emotional state.

Our team worked on an app concept for Canyon Ranch, a destination wellness spa that has grown over 25% in the last few years. The app is designed to activate only when a guest checks in and at night when they aren't participating in spa activities. At all other times, it stays off so guests can focus on being present, whether at the spa or in their daily lives outside of Canyon Ranch.

The Apple Watch is another role model for contextual intelligence. As a wearable, it gives people the convenience of technology without sitting in front of a screen. Its smart notifications do an excellent job of surfacing the right information at the right moment, without taking over your life (unless you want them to).

From contextually aware apps, to wearables, to voice technology, to simply getting back to pen and paper, I expect tech companies will begin trading the "more, more, more" mentality for simplicity, intentionality, and mindfulness.

2018: The Year Technology Refocuses on People

Historically, technology has been driven by engineering and development. It's been all about features and functionality. In the quest to create cool tools with lots of bells and whistles, engineers and developers lost sight of the people those bells and whistles are supposed to help. But the tide is changing.

Businesses and consumers are waking up to the dangers of this approach: confusion, abandonment, dissatisfaction, declining revenue, PR nightmares, and in some cases, lost lives. From embracing more iterative, user-driven product thinking, to collaborating with in-house teams and outside consultants, to building more contextually intelligent technology, I think 2018 will be the year human-centered design finally comes of age.

Seeing these trends in your industry or organization? Reach out to our team to learn how we can help you stay ahead of the game in 2018 and drive business success by driving user success.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the difference between project thinking and product thinking in UX design? Project thinking treats a product as a one-time initiative with a fixed scope: complete a task, ship it, move on. Product thinking treats it as a living thing that requires continuous iteration, user feedback, and improvement. Product thinking aligns with how modern software and subscription-based businesses actually work.

Should a company build an in-house UX team or hire a UX agency? Both options have genuine advantages, and the best answer for most companies in 2018 is a hybrid approach. In-house teams provide proximity, focus, and cultural influence. Agencies bring fresh perspective, depth of experience, and unbiased advice. Combining both multiplies the benefits of each.

What is contextual intelligence in UX design? Contextual intelligence means customizing a user's experience based on their specific context at any given moment, including their location, environment, and emotional state. Rather than bombarding users with constant input, contextually intelligent products serve the right information at the right time and stay quiet the rest of the time.

Why is the backlash against hyper-customization a UX issue? Hyper-customized algorithms that only show users content matching their existing beliefs create echo chambers, which distort worldviews and can be exploited by bad actors. It's a UX issue because the design of these systems, and the assumptions behind them, directly shaped the outcomes. Better research and empathy exercises could have flagged these risks earlier.

Why does usability research matter even for companies with large budgets? Facebook is the clearest example: a company with enormous resources that still allowed dangerous misuse of